Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.76 – 117.3

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 107.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.2 ±19.3

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 78.32Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3745Governors

Provisional

Season APEX 29Event APEX 36.15Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7019Rubber Ducks

Provisional

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 23.29Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.6 ±14.5

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 36.15Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4536MinuteBots

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 28.86Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 52.29Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2530, 3745, 7019

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2530, 3745, 7019

Auto

20.4 15%

Teleop

70.3 52%

Endgame

44.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5690, 4536, 4663

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5690, 4536, 4663

Auto

20.1 18%

Teleop

65.9 58%

Endgame

28.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.8pts

Blue projected score117.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.5
Score range: 94–161
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 129.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.2Season APEX261.6

20.4Auto20.1

70.3Teleop65.9

44.9Endgame28.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	52
teleop	18	135
endgame	19	41
foul	0	10
total	44	238

Result

Final score

44 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 107.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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