Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.92 – 110.29

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 141.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444 ±15.9

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 35.78Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4229Magnetech

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 27.14Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 46Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.5 ±17.7

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 70.29Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4225RoboCats

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 24.57Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5929Raider Robotics

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 15.43Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4778, 4229, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4778, 4229, 2491

Auto

12.9 12%

Teleop

42.2 40%

Endgame

49.3 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2509, 4225, 5929

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2509, 4225, 5929

Auto

25.4 23%

Teleop

58.0 53%

Endgame

26.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.9pts

Blue projected score110.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.4
Score range: 87–132
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444Season APEX238.5

12.9Auto25.4

42.2Teleop58

49.3Endgame26.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	14
teleop	196	18
endgame	66	4
foul	0	0
total	317	36

Result

Final score

317 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 141.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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