Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.5 – 97.95

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.5 ±18.2

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 22.08Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3745Governors

Provisional

Season APEX 29Event APEX 8.66Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 74.76Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263 ±17.2

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 25.3Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 59.23Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4229Magnetech

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 13.42Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2480, 3745, 5690

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2480, 3745, 5690

Auto

23.4 24%

Teleop

47.1 49%

Endgame

25.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2470, 4009, 4229

/ 100 compat

Projected

98 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2470, 4009, 4229

Auto

20.3 22%

Teleop

37.8 41%

Endgame

35.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.5pts

Blue projected score98pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.5
Score range: 72–132
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 145.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.5Season APEX263

23.4Auto20.3

47.1Teleop37.8

25.6Endgame35.1

80Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	24
teleop	71	23
endgame	18	43
foul	5	5
total	124	95

Result

Final score

124 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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