Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

336.64 – 213.89

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

280 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.4 ±13.1

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 24.32Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 155.55Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 156.77Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.9 ±11

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 118.82Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 69.13Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 25.94Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2480, 4174, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2480, 4174, 2491

Auto

54.0 17%

Teleop

184.8 57%

Endgame

84.4 26%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3297, 3082, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3297, 3082, 7530

Auto

40.8 19%

Teleop

111.9 53%

Endgame

58.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score336.6pts

Blue projected score213.9pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.8
Score range: 188–363
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 144.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.4Season APEX417.9

54Auto40.8

184.8Teleop111.9

84.4Endgame58.5

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	68
teleop	141	74
endgame	108	32
foul	0	0
total	280	174

Result

Final score

280 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 pts

Match videos

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