Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

334.38 – 222.67

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.4 ±13.1

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 23.65Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 154.55Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 156.18Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.9 ±11

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 122.01Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 72.12Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 28.54Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2480, 4174, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2480, 4174, 2491

Auto

52.4 16%

Teleop

187.5 58%

Endgame

82.3 26%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3297, 3082, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3297, 3082, 7530

Auto

43.1 20%

Teleop

119.3 54%

Endgame

57.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score334.4pts

Blue projected score222.7pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.7
Score range: 197–360
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 143.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.4Season APEX417.9

52.4Auto43.1

187.5Teleop119.3

82.3Endgame57.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	26
teleop	167	61
endgame	97	68
foul	20	0
total	346	155

Result

Final score

346 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 pts

Match videos

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