Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

240.03 – 276.14

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

163 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 77.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.3 ±16.3

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 53.6Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 91.19Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3018Nordic Storm

Season APEX 100Event APEX 95.24Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.6 ±13.9

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 79.21Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 143.92Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7541Maple River

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 53.01Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6709, 2509, 3018

/ 100 compat

Projected

240 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6709, 2509, 3018

Auto

36.8 16%

Teleop

130.4 56%

Endgame

65.4 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5348, 3276, 7541

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5348, 3276, 7541

Auto

59.1 22%

Teleop

159.5 59%

Endgame

52.1 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score240pts

Blue projected score276.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.1
Score range: 208–308
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 517 vs event baseline 175.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.3Season APEX481.6

36.8Auto59.1

130.4Teleop159.5

65.4Endgame52.1

85Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	73
teleop	98	196
endgame	22	80
foul	0	5
total	163	354

Result

Final score

163 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 77.4 pts

Match videos

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