Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

375.64 – 338.5

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

392 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 85.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 641.6 ±11.7

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 56.67Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 180.97Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 138Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±12.8

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 41.39Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 151.7Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 145.41Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2470, 6045, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2470, 6045, 7028

Auto

54.7 15%

Teleop

221.5 60%

Endgame

93.1 25%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8516, 876, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8516, 876, 2883

Auto

70.2 21%

Teleop

195.4 58%

Endgame

71.8 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score375.6pts

Blue projected score338.5pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.1
Score range: 308–407
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 575 vs event baseline 174.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

641.6Season APEX495.3

54.7Auto70.2

221.5Teleop195.4

93.1Endgame71.8

3Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	68
teleop	184	74
endgame	82	36
foul	15	5
total	392	183

Result

Final score

392 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 85.9 pts

Match videos

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