Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

303.06 – 256.41

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 63.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.7 ±12.4

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 41.49Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 131.46Rank 1Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 130.11Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.3 ±16.3

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 59.06Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 95.1Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3018Nordic Storm

Season APEX 100Event APEX 102.25Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4360, 4728, 5913

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4360, 4728, 5913

Auto

36.1 12%

Teleop

178.6 61%

Endgame

79.6 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6709, 2509, 3018

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6709, 2509, 3018

Auto

40.1 16%

Teleop

142.7 56%

Endgame

71.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score303.1pts

Blue projected score256.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.6
Score range: 225–334
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 173.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.7Season APEX294.3

36.1Auto40.1

178.6Teleop142.7

79.6Endgame71

0Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	24
teleop	154	87
endgame	23	43
foul	30	25
total	254	179

Result

Final score

254 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 63.2 pts

Match videos

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