Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
304.49 – 260.95
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
269 – 328
Prediction missed · off by 51.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.7 ±13.9
Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 94.44Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 81.74Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 128.31Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.6 ±13.9
Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 72.84Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 231Event APEX 139.71Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 48.4Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2503, 4687, 8255
81
/ 100 compatProjected
304.5 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 2503, 4687, 8255
Auto
48.0 16%
Teleop
168.6 57%
Endgame
77.9 26%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5348, 3276, 7541
81
/ 100 compatProjected
261 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 5348, 3276, 7541
Auto
54.6 21%
Teleop
155.1 59%
Endgame
51.2 20%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 69%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.39
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score304.5pts
Blue projected score261pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 69%, blue 60%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 43.5
- Score range
- 230–335
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
386.7Season APEX481.6
48Auto54.6
168.6Teleop155.1
77.9Endgame51.2
23Consistency23
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 73 | 77 |
| teleop | 166 | 172 |
| endgame | 30 | 54 |
| foul | 0 | 25 |
| total | 269 | 328 |
Result
Final score
269 – 328
Prediction missed · off by 51.3 pts
Match videos
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