Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.25 – 179.65

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.6 ±13.3

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 70.84Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 27.7Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 95.71Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.6 ±12.7

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 36.16Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 35.74Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 107.75Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7578, 4226, 6175

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7578, 4226, 6175

Auto

44.0 23%

Teleop

125.9 66%

Endgame

21.7 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2987, 1816, 4607

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2987, 1816, 4607

Auto

35.2 20%

Teleop

94.4 53%

Endgame

48.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score194.3pts

Blue projected score179.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.6
Score range: 149–225
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 172.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.6Season APEX472.6

44Auto35.2

125.9Teleop94.4

21.7Endgame48.1

52Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	17
teleop	68	79
endgame	44	28
foul	0	15
total	143	139

Result

Final score

143 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.