Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

347.55 – 257.09

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±12.8

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 43.35Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 155.88Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 148.32Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.6 ±13.9

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 71.57Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 138.64Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7541Maple River

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 46.88Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8516, 876, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

347.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8516, 876, 2883

Auto

71.8 21%

Teleop

201.9 58%

Endgame

72.0 21%

Strengths

· 876 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5348, 3276, 7541

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5348, 3276, 7541

Auto

48.5 19%

Teleop

162.0 63%

Endgame

46.6 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score347.5pts

Blue projected score257.1pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.5
Score range: 226–379
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 566 vs event baseline 171.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.3Season APEX481.6

71.8Auto48.5

201.9Teleop162

72Endgame46.6

38Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	68
teleop	172	133
endgame	62	65
foul	0	0
total	300	266

Result

Final score

300 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Match videos

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