Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

371.78 – 315.28

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

390 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 641.6 ±11.7

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 53.41Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 179.98Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 138.39Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.7 ±13.9

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 97.72Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4687Spartobots

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 86.55Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 131.01Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2470, 6045, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2470, 6045, 7028

Auto

51.9 14%

Teleop

216.6 59%

Endgame

95.9 26%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2503, 4687, 8255

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2503, 4687, 8255

Auto

52.4 17%

Teleop

181.5 59%

Endgame

73.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score371.8pts

Blue projected score315.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.5
Score range: 285–402
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 656 vs event baseline 169.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

641.6Season APEX386.7

51.9Auto52.4

216.6Teleop181.5

95.9Endgame73.3

3Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	34
teleop	235	127
endgame	84	90
foul	5	15
total	390	266

Result

Final score

390 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Match videos

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