Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.93 – 179.46

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.3 ±16.3

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 64.17Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 100.13Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3018Nordic Storm

Season APEX 100Event APEX 106.63Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.6 ±12.7

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 36.76Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 35.04Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 107.66Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6709, 2509, 3018

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6709, 2509, 3018

Auto

35.4 13%

Teleop

150.8 56%

Endgame

81.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2987, 1816, 4607

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2987, 1816, 4607

Auto

38.3 21%

Teleop

98.0 54%

Endgame

45.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score270.9pts

Blue projected score179.5pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.5
Score range: 149–301
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 168.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.3Season APEX472.6

35.4Auto38.3

150.8Teleop98

81.4Endgame45.9

57Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	28
teleop	115	78
endgame	47	48
foul	5	15
total	216	169

Result

Final score

216 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Match videos

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