Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304.58 – 221.17

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.9 ±11

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 38.15Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 135.02Rank 1Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 131.41Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.6 ±13.3

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 80.41Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 36.58Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 104.18Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7048, 4728, 5913

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 4728, 5913

Auto

35.9 12%

Teleop

182.0 62%

Endgame

77.8 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7578, 4226, 6175

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7578, 4226, 6175

Auto

50.1 23%

Teleop

137.6 63%

Endgame

29.4 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score304.6pts

Blue projected score221.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.4
Score range: 191–335
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 168.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.9Season APEX313.6

35.9Auto50.1

182Teleop137.6

77.8Endgame29.4

0Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	30
teleop	130	84
endgame	107	3
foul	15	0
total	281	117

Result

Final score

281 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 pts

Match videos

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