Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

283.08 – 297.6

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

446 – 325

Prediction missed · off by 95.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.9 ±11

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 36.36Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 122.88Rank 1Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 123.84Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±12.8

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 28.88Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 136.84Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 131.88Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7048, 4728, 5913

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 4728, 5913

Auto

37.9 14%

Teleop

153.9 56%

Endgame

80.7 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8516, 876, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8516, 876, 2883

Auto

66.8 23%

Teleop

165.0 57%

Endgame

57.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score283.1pts

Blue projected score297.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.5
Score range: 251–330
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 771 vs event baseline 178.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.9Season APEX495.3

37.9Auto66.8

153.9Teleop165

80.7Endgame57.2

0Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	70
teleop	215	167
endgame	165	83
foul	15	5
total	446	325

Result

Final score

446 – 325

Prediction missed · off by 95.2 pts

Match videos

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