Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.66 – 292.01

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±12.8

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 28.35Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 135.96Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 131.35Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.6 ±13.9

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 85.82Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 148.63Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7541Maple River

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 57.56Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8516, 876, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8516, 876, 2883

Auto

63.8 22%

Teleop

166.8 57%

Endgame

61.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5348, 3276, 7541

/ 100 compat

Projected

292 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5348, 3276, 7541

Auto

61.7 22%

Teleop

167.2 58%

Endgame

57.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score295.7pts

Blue projected score292pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.7
Score range: 260–328
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 571 vs event baseline 177.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.3Season APEX481.6

63.8Auto61.7

166.8Teleop167.2

61.1Endgame57.9

53Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	74
teleop	155	115
endgame	35	68
foul	35	5
total	309	262

Result

Final score

309 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Match videos

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