Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

296.21 – 380.28

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 93.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.9 ±11

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 41.37Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 126.71Rank 1Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 128.13Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 641.6 ±11.7

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 59.32Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 179.94Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 141.02Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7048, 4728, 5913

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 4728, 5913

Auto

35.8 13%

Teleop

168.0 59%

Endgame

79.6 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2470, 6045, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2470, 6045, 7028

Auto

66.0 18%

Teleop

215.4 58%

Endgame

91.0 24%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score296.2pts

Blue projected score380.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.1
Score range: 264–412
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 176.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.9Season APEX641.6

35.8Auto66

168Teleop215.4

79.6Endgame91

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	82
teleop	89	115
endgame	85	56
foul	0	15
total	221	268

Result

Final score

221 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 93.7 pts

Match videos

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