Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.65 – 183.3

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±12.8

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 31Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 140.08Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 134.57Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.6 ±13.3

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 66.86Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 23.4Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 93.04Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8516, 876, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8516, 876, 2883

Auto

69.0 23%

Teleop

170.3 56%

Endgame

64.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7578, 4226, 6175

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7578, 4226, 6175

Auto

40.7 22%

Teleop

114.6 63%

Endgame

26.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score305.7pts

Blue projected score183.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.3
Score range: 151–338
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 176.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.3Season APEX313.6

69Auto40.7

170.3Teleop114.6

64.5Endgame26.8

46Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	28
teleop	145	81
endgame	43	22
foul	15	0
total	242	131

Result

Final score

242 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Match videos

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