Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.81 – 124.69

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.4 ±17.7

6244Light SaBres

Provisional

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 53.14Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX -Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX -Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.4 ±13.9

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 43.43Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7677Bodacious Bulldogs

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX -Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 51.43Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6244, 8516, 8188

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6244, 8516, 8188

Auto

24.5 22%

Teleop

60.4 54%

Endgame

26.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2987, 7677, 7048

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2987, 7677, 7048

Auto

31.5 25%

Teleop

71.2 57%

Endgame

22.0 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.8pts

Blue projected score124.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.9
Score range: 81–157
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 179.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.4Season APEX269.4

6.6Auto22.6

30.6Teleop56.3

14.6Endgame16

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	28
teleop	16	41
endgame	11	23
foul	0	0
total	46	92

Result

Final score

46 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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