Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.86 – 89.86

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 124 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.6 ±12.8

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX -Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX -Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX -Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196 ±18.2

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX -Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10173Minot Syber-Sentinels

Season APEX 52Event APEX -Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8372HCN Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2977, 2470, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2977, 2470, 2883

Auto

27.0 30%

Teleop

44.9 50%

Endgame

18.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3023, 10173, 8372

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3023, 10173, 8372

Auto

27.0 30%

Teleop

44.9 50%

Endgame

18.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.9pts

Blue projected score89.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 58–122
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 179.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.6Season APEX196

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	18
teleop	194	23
endgame	63	9
foul	0	0
total	298	50

Result

Final score

298 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 124 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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