Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.11 – 89.63

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415 ±19.3

4632Monti-Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 28.69Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 142.34Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6244Light SaBres

Provisional

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX -5.92Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.3 ±16.5

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 10.97Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 51.7Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8887West Central Area

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 26.96Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4632, 2883, 6244

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4632, 2883, 6244

Auto

23.3 14%

Teleop

115.2 68%

Endgame

30.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3610, 2470, 8887

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3610, 2470, 8887

Auto

12.2 13%

Teleop

53.5 59%

Endgame

25.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.1pts

Blue projected score89.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.5
Score range: 60–195
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 168.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415Season APEX220.3

23.3Auto12.2

115.2Teleop53.5

30.3Endgame25

62Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	20
teleop	135	50
endgame	46	27
foul	5	0
total	211	97

Result

Final score

211 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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