Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.58 – 48.68

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 61 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.3 ±15.6

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 54.66Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 48.97Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 32.95Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.2 ±17.3

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 27.55Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3740Storm Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -1.8Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10173Minot Syber-Sentinels

Season APEX 52Event APEX 22.93Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8821, 3026, 7038

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8821, 3026, 7038

Auto

29.3 21%

Teleop

59.0 43%

Endgame

49.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1816, 3740, 10173

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1816, 3740, 10173

Auto

16.6 33%

Teleop

6.1 12%

Endgame

27.2 55%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.6pts

Blue projected score48.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.9
Score range: 19–167
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 168.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.3Season APEX286.2

29.3Auto16.6

59Teleop6.1

49Endgame27.2

45Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	21
teleop	54	71
endgame	20	28
foul	0	15
total	101	135

Result

Final score

101 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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