Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.44 – 178.63

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 71.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.8 ±14.5

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 34.74Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX -0.15Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 159.85Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.5 ±17.7

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 111.6Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4511Power Amplified

Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 55.47Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2511Cougars

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX 11.56Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2987, 3023, 876

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2987, 3023, 876

Auto

57.1 30%

Teleop

108.0 56%

Endgame

26.1 14%

Strengths

· 876 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2503, 4511, 2511

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2503, 4511, 2511

Auto

39.6 23%

Teleop

95.4 54%

Endgame

41.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score194.4pts

Blue projected score178.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.8
Score range: 149–224
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 167.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.8Season APEX279.5

57.1Auto39.6

108Teleop95.4

26.1Endgame41

27Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	27
teleop	105	16
endgame	51	6
foul	5	0
total	207	49

Result

Final score

207 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 71.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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