Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.16 – 231.6

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.1 ±16.8

4182Viking Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 115.1Event APEX 30.55Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 44.28Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 100.33Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.5 ±16.4

3848Bots in Shining Armour

Provisional

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX -7.9Rank 34Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 186.03Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 53.47Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4182, 7048, 2509

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4182, 7048, 2509

Auto

24.6 14%

Teleop

76.0 44%

Endgame

70.7 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3848, 6045, 2470

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3848, 6045, 2470

Auto

38.1 17%

Teleop

128.7 57%

Endgame

57.8 26%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175.2pts

Blue projected score231.6pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.4
Score range: 145–262
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 167.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.1Season APEX426.5

24.6Auto38.1

76Teleop128.7

70.7Endgame57.8

39Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	13
teleop	72	131
endgame	29	71
foul	5	0
total	147	215

Result

Final score

147 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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