Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.66 – 262.58

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.2 ±14.5

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX 30.69Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 66.52Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 42.45Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.5 ±13.5

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 132.72Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 95.33Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 34.53Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6628, 6709, 4226

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6628, 6709, 4226

Auto

23.7 17%

Teleop

69.3 51%

Endgame

44.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2883, 6175, 4360

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2883, 6175, 4360

Auto

39.5 15%

Teleop

154.1 59%

Endgame

67.5 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score139.7pts

Blue projected score262.6pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -122.9
Score range: 110–293
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 166.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.2Season APEX469.5

23.7Auto39.5

69.3Teleop154.1

44.2Endgame67.5

26Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	51
teleop	45	216
endgame	13	66
foul	5	0
total	92	333

Result

Final score

92 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 59 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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