Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.47 – 113.77

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.6 ±17.7

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 95.24Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8887West Central Area

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 20.44Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3018Nordic Storm

Season APEX 100Event APEX 95.79Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.9 ±15.6

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 68.56Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 36.06Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 9.15Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4607, 8887, 3018

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4607, 8887, 3018

Auto

26.4 12%

Teleop

123.1 57%

Endgame

66.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5837, 2512, 5541

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5837, 2512, 5541

Auto

9.8 9%

Teleop

76.5 71%

Endgame

21.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score211.5pts

Blue projected score113.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.7
Score range: 84–241
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 166.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.6Season APEX248.9

26.4Auto9.8

123.1Teleop76.5

66.4Endgame21.3

68Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	29
teleop	180	31
endgame	66	16
foul	0	15
total	286	91

Result

Final score

286 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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