Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.12 – 94.94

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

53 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.5 ±20.5

2538The Plaid Pillagers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX -11.78Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4632Monti-Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 39.43Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 58.47Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.9 ±15

7677Bodacious Bulldogs

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 44.62Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX 6.57Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 43.75Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2538, 4632, 8821

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2538, 4632, 8821

Auto

23.0 24%

Teleop

55.7 59%

Endgame

16.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7677, 4480, 2977

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7677, 4480, 2977

Auto

20.2 22%

Teleop

35.7 39%

Endgame

34.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.1pts

Blue projected score94.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.8
Score range: 56–125
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 168.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.5Season APEX275.9

23Auto20.2

55.7Teleop35.7

16.5Endgame34.5

4Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	18
teleop	20	13
endgame	10	16
foul	0	0
total	53	47

Result

Final score

53 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 40.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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