Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.57 – 232.27

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.8 ±14.5

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 16.71Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 117.68Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10173Minot Syber-Sentinels

Season APEX 52Event APEX 19.18Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 605 ±15.5

3740Storm Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -10.61Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 116.15Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 126.73Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3610, 2503, 10173

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3610, 2503, 10173

Auto

25.2 16%

Teleop

81.7 52%

Endgame

50.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3740, 3276, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3740, 3276, 7028

Auto

51.2 22%

Teleop

146.5 64%

Endgame

31.4 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153.6pts

Blue projected score232.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.7
Score range: 124–262
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 167.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.8Season APEX605

25.2Auto51.2

81.7Teleop146.5

50Endgame31.4

133Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	44
teleop	49	206
endgame	32	95
foul	10	0
total	125	345

Result

Final score

125 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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