Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

223.58 – 276.25

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 263

Prediction missed · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.8 ±18.1

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 176.67Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7541Maple River

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 20.72Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4182Viking Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 115.1Event APEX 26.19Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.4 ±17.2

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 163.49Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 109.48Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6244Light SaBres

Provisional

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 3.28Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6045, 7541, 4182

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6045, 7541, 4182

Auto

41.4 19%

Teleop

107.7 50%

Endgame

66.3 31%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 876, 8255, 6244

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 876, 8255, 6244

Auto

55.3 20%

Teleop

151.6 55%

Endgame

68.2 25%

Strengths

· 876 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score223.6pts

Blue projected score276.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.7
Score range: 194–306
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 549 vs event baseline 165.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.8Season APEX414.4

41.4Auto55.3

107.7Teleop151.6

66.3Endgame68.2

100Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	56
teleop	152	168
endgame	57	24
foul	0	15
total	286	263

Result

Final score

286 – 263

Prediction missed · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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