Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.94 – 94.33

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.2 ±14.5

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 10.45Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 102.06Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 47.43Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297 ±13.5

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 62.86Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -13.83Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 45.3Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3023, 6175, 8516

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3023, 6175, 8516

Auto

40.5 25%

Teleop

82.7 52%

Endgame

36.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5348, 5232, 3026

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5348, 5232, 3026

Auto

7.5 8%

Teleop

47.7 49%

Endgame

42.5 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score159.9pts

Blue projected score94.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.6
Score range: 64–190
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 166.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.2Season APEX297

40.5Auto7.5

82.7Teleop47.7

36.9Endgame42.5

33Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	23
teleop	50	74
endgame	24	40
foul	5	10
total	101	147

Result

Final score

101 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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