Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.74 – 157.99

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.3 ±17.7

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 46.5Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2511Cougars

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX 18.33Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 43.91Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.8 ±12.7

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 44.17Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 20.08Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 93.74Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2512, 2511, 2987

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2512, 2511, 2987

Auto

28.9 28%

Teleop

58.4 56%

Endgame

17.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4226, 1816, 2509

/ 100 compat

Projected

158 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4226, 1816, 2509

Auto

23.6 15%

Teleop

92.6 59%

Endgame

40.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.7pts

Blue projected score158pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.3
Score range: 79–188
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 167.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.3Season APEX346.8

28.9Auto23.6

58.4Teleop92.6

17.6Endgame40.2

60Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	47
teleop	18	69
endgame	4	48
foul	0	5
total	39	169

Result

Final score

39 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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