Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.59 – 126.47

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 102.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.1 ±22

8887West Central Area

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 14.14Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3848Bots in Shining Armour

Provisional

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX -13.77Rank 34Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4238Resistance Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 22.22Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273 ±18.8

8372HCN Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -21.33Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3018Nordic Storm

Season APEX 100Event APEX 77.81Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 69.99Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8887, 3848, 4238

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8887, 3848, 4238

Auto

11.9 66%

Teleop

1.2 7%

Endgame

4.9 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8372, 3018, 7578

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8372, 3018, 7578

Auto

22.2 17%

Teleop

89.4 69%

Endgame

18.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score22.6pts

Blue projected score126.5pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.9
Score range: -7–156
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 166.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.1Season APEX273

11.9Auto22.2

1.2Teleop89.4

4.9Endgame18.6

47Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	31
teleop	39	180
endgame	23	62
foul	0	0
total	81	273

Result

Final score

81 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 102.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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