Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.68 – 51.42

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311 ±14.5

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 64.23Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 38.1Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4687Spartobots

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 69.35Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.9 ±15.6

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX 21.78Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 36.59Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX -6.95Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5837, 2470, 4687

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5837, 2470, 4687

Auto

26.5 17%

Teleop

97.8 62%

Endgame

33.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6628, 4360, 8188

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6628, 4360, 8188

Auto

14.1 31%

Teleop

8.6 19%

Endgame

23.5 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score171.7pts

Blue projected score51.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.3
Score range: 21–202
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311Season APEX260.9

26.5Auto14.1

97.8Teleop8.6

33.3Endgame23.5

16Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	20
teleop	184	49
endgame	69	24
foul	0	0
total	275	93

Result

Final score

275 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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