Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

276.18 – 235.24

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428 ±14.1

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 66.47Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 137.2Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 72.51Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.9 ±14.5

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 51.14Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 166.75Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 17.35Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8821, 2883, 6709

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8821, 2883, 6709

Auto

37.7 14%

Teleop

167.9 60%

Endgame

73.4 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8516, 876, 5541

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8516, 876, 5541

Auto

52.8 23%

Teleop

118.7 51%

Endgame

62.1 27%

Strengths

· 876 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score276.2pts

Blue projected score235.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.9
Score range: 206–305
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 162.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428Season APEX343.9

37.7Auto52.8

167.9Teleop118.7

73.4Endgame62.1

52Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	77
teleop	137	126
endgame	74	19
foul	0	0
total	257	222

Result

Final score

257 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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