Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

11.51 – 187.06

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

15 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 155.6 ±16.8

2511Cougars

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX -3Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 21.67Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -7.16Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.6 ±19.3

4238Resistance Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 32.56Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 128.65Rank 1Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4182Viking Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 115.1Event APEX 25.85Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2511, 4226, 5232

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2511, 4226, 5232

Auto

15.4 100%

Teleop

-0.9 0%

Endgame

-2.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4238, 4728, 4182

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4238, 4728, 4182

Auto

34.8 20%

Teleop

94.6 53%

Endgame

47.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score11.5pts

Blue projected score187.1pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -175.5
Score range: -21–220
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 184.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

155.6Season APEX430.6

15.4Auto34.8

-0.9Teleop94.6

-2.1Endgame47.9

91Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	38
teleop	3	92
endgame	0	71
foul	0	20
total	15	221

Result

Final score

15 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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