Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.21 – 109.38

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 87.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.8 ±17.7

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 1.88Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 84.88Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2511Cougars

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX 11.45Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.3 ±16.9

6244Light SaBres

Provisional

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX -2.08Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4480UC-Botics

Season APEX 86Event APEX -1.56Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 113.02Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3023, 2509, 2511

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3023, 2509, 2511

Auto

18.7 19%

Teleop

54.2 55%

Endgame

26.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6244, 4480, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6244, 4480, 7028

Auto

28.7 28%

Teleop

42.3 42%

Endgame

30.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.2pts

Blue projected score109.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.2
Score range: 69–138
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 383 vs event baseline 162.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.8Season APEX472.3

18.7Auto28.7

54.2Teleop42.3

26.1Endgame30.8

42Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	32
teleop	74	128
endgame	60	45
foul	15	0
total	178	205

Result

Final score

178 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 87.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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