Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.32 – 93.24

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 3.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.2 ±17.2

3848Bots in Shining Armour

Provisional

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX -15.61Rank 34Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 51.64Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 21.29Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.8 ±18.6

7541Maple River

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 16.7Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8887West Central Area

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 20.89Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3026Orange Crush Robotics

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 55.65Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3848, 2977, 3610

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3848, 2977, 3610

Auto

17.5 30%

Teleop

21.2 36%

Endgame

19.6 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7541, 8887, 3026

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7541, 8887, 3026

Auto

24.4 26%

Teleop

38.4 41%

Endgame

30.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.3pts

Blue projected score93.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.9
Score range: 27–123
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 163.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.2Season APEX217.8

17.5Auto24.4

21.2Teleop38.4

19.6Endgame30.7

21Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	10
teleop	29	43
endgame	13	36
foul	0	0
total	54	89

Result

Final score

54 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 3.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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