Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.61 – 75.66

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.8 ±13.5

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 126.16Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 47.84Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 116.61Rank 1Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.5 ±19.7

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 34.21Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4238Resistance Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 36.14Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2538The Plaid Pillagers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 5.31Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2503, 4360, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2503, 4360, 4728

Auto

36.6 13%

Teleop

166.9 58%

Endgame

85.1 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7048, 4238, 2538

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 4238, 2538

Auto

15.3 20%

Teleop

37.0 49%

Endgame

23.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score290.6pts

Blue projected score75.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 215
Score range: 46–321
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 165.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.8Season APEX212.5

36.6Auto15.3

166.9Teleop37

85.1Endgame23.9

60Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	6
teleop	144	11
endgame	8	0
foul	0	0
total	216	17

Result

Final score

216 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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