Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

202.32 – 259.64

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.1 ±16.9

4182Viking Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 115.1Event APEX 29.3Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 112.79Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 60.23Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 482 ±12.8

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 109.66Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 48.72Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 101.26Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4182, 3276, 5837

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4182, 3276, 5837

Auto

41.3 21%

Teleop

132.8 66%

Endgame

26.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5913, 2987, 6175

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5913, 2987, 6175

Auto

52.8 21%

Teleop

147.1 58%

Endgame

52.6 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score202.3pts

Blue projected score259.6pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.3
Score range: 172–290
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 164.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.1Season APEX482

41.3Auto52.8

132.8Teleop147.1

26.9Endgame52.6

51Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	49
teleop	100	180
endgame	50	58
foul	15	0
total	200	287

Result

Final score

200 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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