Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.96 – 134.02

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 75 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.9 ±14.5

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 53.38Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 61.8Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8255Robodogs

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 92.78Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235 ±15

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 54.15Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 47.02Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX 32.85Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2512, 7578, 8255

/ 100 compat

Projected

208 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2512, 7578, 8255

Auto

22.2 11%

Teleop

132.9 65%

Endgame

49.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2470, 7038, 6628

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2470, 7038, 6628

Auto

28.0 22%

Teleop

68.4 53%

Endgame

33.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score208pts

Blue projected score134pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.9
Score range: 105–237
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 163.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.9Season APEX235

22.2Auto28

132.9Teleop68.4

49.2Endgame33.1

103Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	13
teleop	164	4
endgame	36	26
foul	15	0
total	267	43

Result

Final score

267 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 75 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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