Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.03 – 201.36

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 16.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.8 ±14.5

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 79.61Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8516Wired Up

Season APEX 105Event APEX 63.71Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 50.71Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.2 ±20

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 178.68Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8372HCN Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -29.56Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4632Monti-Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 52.24Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2509, 8516, 4360

/ 100 compat

Projected

194 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2509, 8516, 4360

Auto

29.5 15%

Teleop

91.5 48%

Endgame

71.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 876, 8372, 4632

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 876, 8372, 4632

Auto

58.2 29%

Teleop

115.7 57%

Endgame

29.6 15%

Strengths

· 876 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score194pts

Blue projected score201.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.3
Score range: 165–230
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 161.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.8Season APEX339.2

29.5Auto58.2

91.5Teleop115.7

71.3Endgame29.6

2Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	21
teleop	100	87
endgame	84	60
foul	0	0
total	194	168

Result

Final score

194 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 16.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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