Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.77 – 143.13

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 78.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.2 ±14.5

10173Minot Syber-Sentinels

Season APEX 52Event APEX 40.14Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 52.86Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 89.77Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.5 ±19.3

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 107.42Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2511Cougars

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX 6.57Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4238Resistance Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 29.14Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10173, 7048, 8821

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10173, 7048, 8821

Auto

35.7 19%

Teleop

101.2 55%

Endgame

48.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5913, 2511, 4238

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5913, 2511, 4238

Auto

19.2 15%

Teleop

68.4 53%

Endgame

42.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score182.8pts

Blue projected score143.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.6
Score range: 114–212
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.2Season APEX343.5

35.7Auto19.2

101.2Teleop68.4

48.2Endgame42.6

88Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	41
teleop	33	133
endgame	40	33
foul	0	0
total	90	207

Result

Final score

90 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 78.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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