Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.59 – 270.07

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

210 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.4 ±13.3

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 89.42Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 108.33Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 12.84Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454 ±13.3

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 36.64Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 138.2Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 95.23Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6175, 4607, 3610

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6175, 4607, 3610

Auto

34.1 16%

Teleop

116.5 56%

Endgame

57.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1816, 876, 2503

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1816, 876, 2503

Auto

64.4 24%

Teleop

149.9 56%

Endgame

52.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score210.6pts

Blue projected score270.1pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.5
Score range: 178–303
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 544 vs event baseline 184.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.4Season APEX454

34.1Auto64.4

116.5Teleop149.9

57.9Endgame52.3

80Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	71
teleop	92	203
endgame	76	60
foul	0	0
total	210	334

Result

Final score

210 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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