Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.79 – 150.22

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.4 ±13.5

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX -12.34Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 33.65Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 116.48Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.7 ±16.8

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 108.8Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3848Bots in Shining Armour

Provisional

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX -4.88Rank 34Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 46.3Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8188, 3610, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8188, 3610, 7028

Auto

29.7 22%

Teleop

73.1 54%

Endgame

31.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6175, 3848, 4226

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6175, 3848, 4226

Auto

44.1 29%

Teleop

89.4 59%

Endgame

18.0 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.8pts

Blue projected score150.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.4
Score range: 109–179
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 163.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.4Season APEX290.7

29.7Auto44.1

73.1Teleop89.4

31.7Endgame18

50Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	25
teleop	33	25
endgame	23	26
foul	0	15
total	81	91

Result

Final score

81 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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