Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.58 – 244.26

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.1 ±16.9

2538The Plaid Pillagers

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 11.01Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6628KMS BOTKICKERS

Season APEX 63.2Event APEX 43.45Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 114.12Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522 ±12.9

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 162.46Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 9.58Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 72.22Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2538, 6628, 3276

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2538, 6628, 3276

Auto

35.2 21%

Teleop

118.6 70%

Endgame

15.1 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6045, 3023, 4607

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6045, 3023, 4607

Auto

38.9 16%

Teleop

135.4 55%

Endgame

70.5 29%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score168.6pts

Blue projected score244.3pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.7
Score range: 140–273
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 163.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.1Season APEX522

35.2Auto38.9

118.6Teleop135.4

15.1Endgame70.5

10Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	20
teleop	84	151
endgame	3	80
foul	0	0
total	119	251

Result

Final score

119 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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