Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.77 – 41.05

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.6 ±16.3

7578Quantum Mechanics

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 53Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7541Maple River

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 14.03Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 11.74Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.9 ±17.7

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -12.09Rank 50Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3740Storm Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -7.33Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 60.47Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7578, 7541, 5541

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7578, 7541, 5541

Auto

35.3 47%

Teleop

38.1 51%

Endgame

1.5 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5232, 3740, 5837

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5232, 3740, 5837

Auto

18.1 43%

Teleop

17.1 41%

Endgame

6.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.8pts

Blue projected score41.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.7
Score range: 11–109
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 165.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.6Season APEX230.9

35.3Auto18.1

38.1Teleop17.1

1.5Endgame6.9

166Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	13
teleop	87	39
endgame	6	9
foul	0	0
total	111	61

Result

Final score

111 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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