Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.36 – 250.65

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 64 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.3 ±16.9

4360Spudnik

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 60.94Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8372HCN Storm

Provisional

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -8.49Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 181.91Rank 2Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.1 ±13.5

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 128.32Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 86.94Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 35.39Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4360, 8372, 6045

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4360, 8372, 6045

Auto

38.7 16%

Teleop

135.6 57%

Endgame

64.0 27%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7028, 8821, 2987

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7028, 8821, 2987

Auto

47.2 19%

Teleop

146.6 59%

Endgame

56.4 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score234.4pts

Blue projected score250.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.3
Score range: 204–281
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.3Season APEX526.1

38.7Auto47.2

135.6Teleop146.6

64Endgame56.4

62Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	57
teleop	47	120
endgame	67	53
foul	0	0
total	127	230

Result

Final score

127 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 64 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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