Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.79 – 82.48

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.4 ±19.8

8887West Central Area

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 9.31Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3023STARK Industries

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 8.45Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4632Monti-Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 60.03Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.8 ±13.9

7048Red River Rage

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 32.65Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8188Grand Force

Season APEX 77.6Event APEX -31Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6175EVW Mystery Machine

Season APEX 126.9Event APEX 80.83Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8887, 3023, 4632

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8887, 3023, 4632

Auto

11.4 14%

Teleop

64.2 76%

Endgame

8.6 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7048, 8188, 6175

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7048, 8188, 6175

Auto

31.7 38%

Teleop

38.2 46%

Endgame

13.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.8pts

Blue projected score82.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.7
Score range: 48–112
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 165.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.4Season APEX283.8

11.4Auto31.7

64.2Teleop38.2

8.6Endgame13

93Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	39
teleop	16	105
endgame	7	50
foul	0	0
total	48	194

Result

Final score

48 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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