Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.49 – 235.42

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 69.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.4 ±13.9

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 37.51Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 32.37Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7677Bodacious Bulldogs

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 28.61Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.5 ±18.8

7541Maple River

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 31.88Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

876Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 167.8Event APEX 190.3Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3740Storm Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 13.24Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2470, 4226, 7677

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2470, 4226, 7677

Auto

36.4 38%

Teleop

59.2 62%

Endgame

0.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7541, 876, 3740

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7541, 876, 3740

Auto

54.9 23%

Teleop

130.5 55%

Endgame

51.0 22%

Strengths

· 876 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.5pts

Blue projected score235.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.9
Score range: 68–265
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 165.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.4Season APEX329.5

36.4Auto54.9

59.2Teleop130.5

0.2Endgame51

52Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	83
teleop	90	53
endgame	29	0
foul	0	5
total	143	141

Result

Final score

143 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 69.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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