Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.54 – 153.9

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.8 ±15.6

4511Power Amplified

Season APEX 116.2Event APEX 41.9Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 71.96Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6709S.P.U.D. INC

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 48.68Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.2 ±17.7

4632Monti-Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 34.9Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 85.82Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 33.18Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4511, 5837, 6709

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4511, 5837, 6709

Auto

28.6 18%

Teleop

84.5 55%

Endgame

41.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4632, 2509, 2512

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4632, 2509, 2512

Auto

20.6 14%

Teleop

94.4 64%

Endgame

33.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score162.5pts

Blue projected score153.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.6
Score range: 121–196
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 184.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.8Season APEX274.2

28.6Auto20.6

84.5Teleop94.4

41.8Endgame33.4

66Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	14
teleop	140	119
endgame	36	63
foul	10	0
total	208	196

Result

Final score

208 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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